We study the long-run interaction between Germany's economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We …
The cyclical adjustment procedure of the debt brake is one of the most important elements of the German deficit rule. The cyclical adjustment enables governments that are borrowing to take account of current business cycle developments. In economic …
This paper investigates expert revisions of potential output (PO) estimates following recessions. Using data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), we show that downward revisions are substantial, permanent, and …
Economic crises lead to lower potential output (PO) estimates, but little is known about which components of PO are revised. Our paper answers the questions of how much, how fast, and how persistently estimates of the capital stock, of trend labor, …